Investment Outlook for 2021

Investment Outlook for 2021

It is always difficult to predict what is going to happen. Who would have predicted the pandemic, and the variety of responses, in 2020? Returns in 2021 are likely to be just as interesting. Events like the pandemic come and go but returns over the longer term are almost always positive.  That said, and depending on your timeframe, the starting point is important.

Near term returns can move around a lot. They are very dependent on what governments and ‘experts’ say and do, and reactions to such. Governments are expected to keep interest rates low in the foreseeable future. They are hoping to fuel a recovery in earnings, which in turn should lead to employment and economic growth. Along with additional policy stimulus and increasing vaccination growth is expected to increase over time. On a positive note, the IMF (International Monetary Fund)1 recently raised its global growth forecast for 2021 to 5.5% from the 5.2% it anticipated back in October.

However, given what is considered to be current, by historic measures, high prices in both shares and bonds (low-interest rates) performances in 2021 could be up or down. Issues or events that could affect this year include developments around US policy, ongoing tensions between the US and China, the approach towards Iran, the level of global trade and initiatives adopted that might address climate issues. On top of all that no doubt developments around the virus will continue to have a big impact. In this environment, it pays to tread carefully / invest wisely. Our strategy remains to endeavour to participate well in the current market rally, while still preserving some measure of downside protection against what we believe to be “frothy” markets.

 

 

  1. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organisation of 190 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.
Investment Returns at 31 December 2020

Investment Returns at 31 December 2020

 

Investment returns (before tax and fees) for the quarter ending 31 December 2020 are:

Fund 3 months 1 Year (p.a.) 3 years (p.a.) 5 years (p.a.) 10 years (p.a.)
Growth Fund 6.2% 8.7% 10.1% 10.3% 9.2%
Balanced Fund 4.5% 7.2% 7.9% 8.3% 7.8%
Income Fund 1.4% 4.6% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5%

Returns were solid over the quarter despite the growth in virus cases and renewed lockdown announcements. Equities (shares) in particular posted strong gains with most share markets returning over 10% in the quarter. Investment returns were supported by vaccine approvals, more Government policy stimulus (spending), and clarity on the U.S. election outcome. The strength of our dollar held back gains but our overseas fixed income (bond) funds benefitted from the weak U.S dollar that prevailed. Almost all investments achieved positive returns in the quarter. Whilst it is good that the run of positive returns continues we are concerned, as mentioned here before, that both share and bond prices (in general) are at levels that deem it to be prudent, that is to remain well-diversified and carefully invested. Our active management approach has nevertheless enabled us to find sound investments in most environments.

Your seedlings are growing

Your seedlings are growing

Your Christian KiwiSaver Scheme is unique in having direct investment in a pine forest in the southern Hawkes Bay, Hapua Forest.

Just like KiwiSaver, forestry is a long-term investment with a typical forest usually taking some 25 years to mature. Our forestry land value has soared in recent times as investors have come to realise the ability of forestry to provide a carbon offset.

We’ve almost completed harvesting our first crop which was planted as seedlings in 1992-1993 and since 2018 we’ve been steadily replanting our land. So far over 300,000 seedlings have been planted. The next photo shows an area of seedlings planted in 2018.

Replanting in 2020 faced some obstacles with COVID-19 affecting the availability of labour and the Hawkes Bay drought delaying replanting. Some of the forest land is also not suitable for replanting, we don’t plant along the banks of the waterways and there are areas of native bush that we wish to protect and leave to regenerate. See the photo below of an area of retained native bush.

In our October 2019 article, we mentioned that we source our seedlings from Murrays Nurseries Woodville. Seedlings are ready for planting when 25–30 centimetres tall and are mainly planted by hand. It’s labour intensive and done by skilled teams. The number of trees planted per hectare can vary from 600 to 1,400.

Radiata pine was first introduced to New Zealand in the late 1850s to see if it would be a good candidate for widespread planting. Its excellent growth rate prompted seed imports from California in the 1870s, mainly for shelterbelts and woodlots. By the first forestry planting boom in the 1920s and 1930s, it had been adopted as the species of choice.

It proved to be versatile and grew well throughout New Zealand on a variety of soil types, including coastal sands, heavy clays, gravels and volcanic ash deposits.

Logging is a big deal in New Zealand. It is our third largest industry after dairy and meat.

A third of the world’s radiata forests are grown in New Zealand, with Australia and Chile being other major producers. New Zealand now has 1.75 million hectares of planted forest, of which some 90 percent is radiata pine, much in first rotation forests. These forests cover around 7% of New Zealand, which’s about the same area as 10 Stewart Islands. A substantial part of New Zealand (24%) is also covered in indigenous (native) forest.

There are other articles on Hapua Forest in February 2019 and October 2019.

Your annual KiwiSaver check up

Your annual KiwiSaver check up

Like almost anything of value we own, your KiwiSaver account needs a little love and attention now and then. Let’s call it a health check. It won’t take long, and your KiwiSaver account will love you for it.

Look at it as a “do-it-yourself Warrant of Fitness”. We suggest it be done annually; perhaps at the beginning of each year or when you receive your annual member statement.

  1. Is your investment profile suitable for your current situation?

This is about where your funds are invested. Is your choice of investment funds too conservative, too aggressive or just right?

The Sorted website has a useful tool to help you called Investor Kickstarter at www.sorted.org.nz/tools/investor-kickstarter. You answer a few questions and it provides a guide to what type of investor you are, a typical investment mix for your type and what sorts of returns you could expect.

  1. Are you contributing enough?

If you can afford it, should you increase your contribution rate or make extra voluntary contributions?

If you have suspended making contributions, is it time to recommence contributing?

The Sorted website has another useful tool to help you with these questions, the KiwiSaver Savings Calculator www.sorted.org.nz/tools/kiwisaver-savings-calculator. You answer a few questions and it provides a guide on how big your balance could be at age 65 and how much you could get per week in retirement. Try different contribution rates to see the impact on your future savings.

  1. Is your Personal Investor Rate (PIR) correct?

You don’t want to have too much tax taken from your KiwiSaver earnings or too little and face a tax bill by having the wrong PIR rate. Your PIR is based on your income. If that changes, so might your PIR. We have a handy guide to help you with calculating your PIR on the scheme’s website www.christiankiwisaver.nz/documents.

If these three items are in good order, your KiwiSaver account should be running well.

Our staff are happy to help you with any questions you have on this.

 

Investing with Christian values

Investing with Christian values

Investing with Christian values

We invest your savings in the Christian KiwiSaver Scheme, and all the other funds we manage, under our Ethical Investment Policy, a policy based on our Christian values. We call it being Ethical at Heart.

We recently looked at what underpins our approach to ethical investing, which might be better termed value-based investing. We started from recognising that economic decisions involve values-based choices and that the Christian tradition recognises that these choices are made in a world marred by human failure and its consequences. And yet we have a God who is active in restoring the world and a church which seeks goodness and the growth of human flourishing.

When applied to the work of Anglican Financial Care, as your fund manager, this means that we recognise the order of New Zealand society, including the legal requirement for the organisation to act in the financial interest of its members. As we do so, we expect that a participation in the economic life of our nation and world informed by Christian ethics will be fruitful, and that investing in those things which God loves will be productive as well as tending towards the restoration of the world.

Some investment opportunities will be so marked by evil or its consequences that we will not invest, even if the potential financial reward is high. However, many other investment opportunities are ethically mixed. For example, concrete has been rightly called “the most destructive material on earth,” but concrete is widely used as a cheap and effective way to build homes desperately needed by the poor. It can be ethically preferable to invest in a concrete producer — if the purpose of the investment is to meet human need. Most forms of investment will involve complicity in a degree of disorder – and therein lies the challenge of values-based investing. Our primary function is to prudently build your nest egg with solid returns whilst keeping to our values.

It is no accident the church’s mission is expressed positively (how we share in the good that God is doing), rather than negatively (how we avoid evil). Our investment activity will similarly express the ways in which we are participating in the good God is doing in the world. Theologically, our bias is towards optimism about the restoration of the world, not withdrawal from the world. We are required to build, produce and multiply. This means we will continue to invest, even though this involves us in the mess of a broken world, because we believe that by wise investment choices we can support what tends towards the good.

Our investment activity, then, will be informed first by a desire to support and encourage what is good. We are not defined primarily by what we reject. Our defining mark of ethical commitment is that we support the signs of God’s restoring work in the world. We will work hard to make wise and ethical investment choices, and to explain clearly why we believe our investment choices support the mission of the church.

How do we actually do this in practice? We start from a list of sectors which we consider are in essence contrary to Christian values. This list includes alcohol, animal welfare, armaments and defence, fossil fuels, gambling, pornography, and tobacco.

We are aware that there are fiduciary implications from screening out all these stocks (shares), so we lift the lid on these sectors to see if there are any stocks within these sectors that could be included. We use some international investment research to help in this respect. We then go through a robust process with our investment committee to justify any inclusion that we think is warranted.

The Christian KiwiSaver Scheme has from its very beginning in 2007 been invested under Anglican Financial Care’s Ethical Investment Policy. As an organisation Anglican Financial Care formalised its commitment to ethical investing in 2002. However, even prior to that we endeavoured to make investment choices that aligned with Christian values, which form the foundation of our organisation. Our Policy is not static just as the world around us is constantly changing.

 

Not already a member of Christian KiwiSaver Scheme? Join other like-minded Kiwi Christians growing their savings ethically today!

Investment Returns at 31 December 2020

Investment returns at 30 June 2020

The quarter ending 30 June 2020 saw a welcome bounce back to strong positive returns, following the initial global reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic in March. The positive were primarily influenced by investors around the world regaining confidence as governments delivered sizeable economic stimulus packages (like we have seen from the New Zealand government). The most recent announcement came from the European Union who announced a €750b COVID-19 recovery plan. Further packages are expected to be announced. Aiding the positivity is that several countries have made headway in containing the virus and that the development of a vaccine is well underway with some early trials showing promising results.

In addition to government spending, the positive outlook was also helped by the expectation that interest rates may remain low for years. Investors were prepared to look through some negative headlines (e.g. reported economic statistics and political developments) and instead focus on the potential for better economic activity particularly as several economies planned to re-open. The commonly quoted USA index the Dow Jones was up a staggering 18% in the quarter.

 

While we welcomed the rebound in the quarter, we remain focussed on the long term investment horizon for our members. Through Christian KiwiSaver Scheme’s cautious investment strategy (focussed, diversified and with capital preservation in mind) our members have been shielded from the recent extreme market movements to some degree. Going forward, in the short term at least, we expect that asset prices will remain volatile (i.e. go up and down).

Investment returns at 30 June 2020 (before fees and tax) were as follows:

Fund 3 months 1 Year (p.a.) 3 years (p.a.) 5 years (p.a.) 10 years (p.a.)
Growth Fund 6.2% 8.7% 10.1% 10.3% 9.2%
Balanced Fund 4.5% 7.2% 7.9% 8.3% 7.8%
Income Fund 1.4% 4.6% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5%

Not already a member of Christian KiwiSaver Scheme? Join other like-minded Kiwi Christians growing their savings ethically today!

Membership of the Christian KiwiSaver Scheme is offered only to:

  • employees of organisations whose primary activities are in our opinion Christian mission or ministry. This includes employees of charitable entities associated with or operating in the Christian Church, or employees of entities which we approve as having a Christian special character; and
  • persons who express a Christian faith and have a commitment to Christian community involvement when applying (and their immediate family members and dependants).

Christian KiwiSaver Scheme is managed and issued by The New Zealand Anglican Church Pension Board (trading as Anglican Financial Care). The Product Disclosure Statement and Fund Updates are available under Documents.