Investment returns (before tax and fees) for the quarter ending 30 June 2022 are: Are we closer to an upward move in markets? Most major share markets fell, (between 10% and 20%), and bond (fixed income) markets fell (between 1%...

The last quarter was all about the increase in uncertainty. Markets dislike when there is an increase in doubt. Uncertainties increased with the dreadful Russian invasion of Ukraine and with regard to the future level of interest rates. The outbreak of conflict only further inflamed inflation fears. Many central banks around the world (Japan excepted) raised their official overnight cash rate and inferred that further increases were likely. Talk of the unwind of policies that were implemented to counter the expected COVID impacts also spooked some market participants. All this increased uncertainty led to falls in both share and bond prices (bond prices fell as interest rates rose) over the quarter.

A positive quarter for funds, particularly those with exposure to shares. Long term returns were good across all the funds. COVID news continued to dominate but despite the markets being concerned at times shares carried on with their upward track, with some share performances in international equity markets performing strongly. Fixed interest (bonds) investments however were mixed with concerns around the inflation and interest rate outlook holding back returns in that sector.

The themes that may dominate in the next year (a continuation from late 2021) are inflation, interest rates and growth. Growth enhancing policies may recede, spare capacity in the economy is minimal and the re-opening growth surge is probably over....