Why your KiwiSaver balance fluctuates, and why that’s OK!

Why your KiwiSaver balance fluctuates, and why that’s OK!

It’s easy to fall into the habit of checking your Christian KiwiSaver Scheme balance regularly, especially in an age where we can track everything instantly on our phones. However, if you find yourself refreshing your balance every day, you might be focusing on the wrong thing.

Investing is about building for the future, not reacting to the present. The key to growing your savings is trusting in a long-term plan and staying committed, even when markets fluctuate.

Market ups and downs are normal

Financial markets rise and fall constantly. This movement, known as market volatility, is a normal part of investing. Some days your Christian KiwiSaver Scheme balance might be up, while on others, it may drop. But unless you’re planning to withdraw your savings soon, these short-term changes don’t matter.

Proverbs 21:5 reminds us:

“The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance, but everyone who is hasty comes only to poverty.”

Making long-term, steady contributions is often wiser than reacting hastily to short-term changes.

Why reacting emotionally can hurt your savings

It’s human nature to feel uneasy when markets drop. Some people panic and switch funds, trying to avoid further losses. But making decisions based on short-term fear can lock in losses and prevent you from benefiting when the market recovers.

Instead of focusing on daily fluctuations, think about why you’re investing:

  • Growing long-term savings for retirement
  • Preparing for a first-home withdrawal
  • Contributing consistently for future financial security

KiwiSaver is designed as a long-term investment, not something that needs daily tracking.

Take advantage of market downturns

Instead of worrying about when to invest, many members follow a regular savings approach, contributing a set amount into their Christian KiwiSaver Scheme regardless of market movements. This strategy is called dollar-cost averaging and helps smooth out fluctuations over time.

Here’s how it works:

  • When the market is down, your contributions buy more of your chosen fund.
  • When the market is up, your contributions buy less, but your overall balance grows.
  • Over time, this reduces the impact of short-term market swings.

By staying consistent, you take advantage of market downturns rather than fearing them.

Patience pays off

Think of your Christian KiwiSaver Scheme like planting a tree. You wouldn’t expect it to grow overnight, but with time and steady care, it can become strong and fruitful. The same applies to your savings; the longer you stay invested, the greater the potential for growth through compounding returns.

Rather than checking your balance daily, ask yourself:

  • Am I contributing regularly?
  • Am I contributing enough to reach my goals?
  • Does my fund match my long-term goals?
  • Am I trusting in the process rather than reacting to short-term changes?

The key is consistency, not daily monitoring. If you ever have questions, our team at Anglican Financial Care is here to support you.

Set yourself up for financial success

Checking your KiwiSaver balance every day won’t make it grow faster. But sticking to a long-term strategy, investing with purpose, staying consistent, and keeping a long-term mindset, will help set you up for financial success, no matter what the market is doing.

If you want to learn more about how your Christian KiwiSaver Scheme savings work, get in touch – we’re always happy to help.

 

Christian KiwiSaver Scheme is managed and issued by The New Zealand Anglican Church Pension Board (trading as Anglican Financial Care). The Product Disclosure Statement can be found here Documents | Christian KiwiSaver Scheme.

Navigating market volatility with faith and perspective

Navigating market volatility with faith and perspective

“For we live by faith, not by sight.” – 2 Corinthians 5:7

If you’ve noticed your KiwiSaver balance shift recently, you’re not alone. Global markets have entered a period of volatility, largely in response to the tariffs introduced by the United States which have contributed to broader economic uncertainty.

While this volatility can feel unsettling, it’s important to step back and view these market movements through the lens of long-term investing.

Why are markets volatile right now?

The recent introduction of broad tariffs by the United States has impacted global trade and investor confidence, triggering declines in share markets across many countries. These fluctuations have also affected KiwiSaver funds, especially those with exposure to growth assets like shares.

While the United States tariffs are receiving significant media coverage right now, market corrections like this aren’t new. They help rebalance markets after long periods of upward performance. In fact, the markets had been performing strongly for quite some time, and this adjustment, though uncomfortable, is part of maintaining long-term health.

KiwiSaver is a long-term investment

Christian KiwiSaver Scheme is designed for the long haul, helping members prepare for retirement or take their first step onto the property ladder. These are goals that often span decades, not days or weeks.

It’s normal for balances to rise and fall over time. What’s important is how we respond. During periods of uncertainty, keeping perspective can make all the difference. Patience and discipline are key when it comes to long-term investing.

Here are a few practical reminders:

Avoid checking your balance too often

It’s natural to want reassurance when markets feel unsettled, but checking your balance frequently, especially during periods of volatility, can lead to unnecessary stress. Daily fluctuations are normal and often don’t reflect the bigger picture. Reacting emotionally to these short-term movements can lead to hasty decisions that may not serve your long-term goals.

Expect fluctuations

Markets rise and fall over time, that’s part of how they work. Economic events, policy changes, and global developments can all cause short-term movements, but this doesn’t mean your investment is off course. Volatility is a natural part of long-term investing, and history shows that markets tend to recover and grow over time.

Changing funds in a downturn can turn a movement into a loss

Switching funds when markets are down might feel like a way to avoid further losses, but it can have the opposite effect. When you move your investment to a lower-risk fund during a downturn, you may be turning a change on paper into a permanent loss of money, and you may be missing out on a future recovery. Staying invested in a fund that matches your long-term goals and risk appetite allows your savings the chance to grow over time. Watch out for our next blog which will explain this concept further.

As Proverbs 21:5 reminds us:

“The plans of the diligent lead to profit as surely as haste leads to poverty.”

How Christian KiwiSaver Scheme is managed

At Anglican Financial Care, we take a careful, values-led approach to managing Christian KiwiSaver Scheme.

Here’s how that translates into action:

  • Risk-aware investing: Our team continuously monitors the markets and makes thoughtful decisions to support members’ long-term goals, even in times of uncertainty.
  • Diversified portfolios: Each of our Funds – Growth, Balanced, and Income, includes a mix of local and global assets, which helps reduce the impact of any single event or market dip.
  • Active management: We don’t take a ‘set and forget’ approach. Our funds are actively managed, allowing us to respond to changing conditions while staying aligned with our values.
  • Ethical stewardship: Our equity investments are screened against our Ethical Investment Policy. We focus our investments on the entities that produce more good than harm and make deliberate investments in entities making the transition to clean technology and sustainable infrastructure.

A message of reassurance

Market downturns are a normal part of the investment journey. What matters most is the path forward. By staying the course, focusing on what you can control, and trusting in the process, you give your investment the time it needs to recover and grow.

If you’re unsure about your fund choice or want to understand more about your options, we encourage you to speak to a financial adviser. You’re also welcome to contact our member services team for general support.

In times of uncertainty, keep your focus on what truly matters: your long-term goals, your community, and your faith. It’s here that you’ll often find clarity and peace. 

Christian KiwiSaver Scheme is managed and issued by The New Zealand Anglican Church Pension Board (trading as Anglican Financial Care). The Product Disclosure Statement can be found here Documents | Christian KiwiSaver Scheme.

CKS Quarterly Returns to 30/09/2024

CKS Quarterly Returns to 30/09/2024

Investment returns at 30 September 2024, before fees and tax

Growth Fund Balanced Fund Income Fund
3 months 4.4% 3.9% 3.0%
1 Year (p.a.) 16.6% 14.1% 8.8%
3 years (p.a.) 8.0% 5.9% 1.9%
5 years (p.a.) 9.0% 6.6% 2.1%
10 years (p.a.) 9.0% 7.1% 3.0%

It’s been another quarter of positive performance by each of the funds. Long term returns (see the Last 3 Years column), particularly in income funds, will continue to reflect the low interest rate environment that existed around the pandemic. Hopefully the pandemic effect remains a thing of the past.

Our view of the markets has not changed. We still believe (and maybe even more strongly now) that major sharemarkets reflect an optimistic outlook. It is generally believed that the high point in inflation has been seen, that interest rate reductions will continue and that corporate earnings will not be greatly affected. Most central banks have already reduced their country’s official cash rate.

We disagree with the optimistic view currently being reflected in most sharemarkets. Whilst headline reported inflation is in no doubt reducing, the central banks (rightfully, in our view) remain concerned about domestic inflation. Central banks have less influence on certain domestic factors, e.g. council rates, insurance premiums and energy costs. We question whether interest rates will fall as quickly as expected by some, and what might happen to corporate earnings. Will central banks cut aggressively because they see a risk to the economy (and hence corporate earnings)? Will investors continue to pay higher amounts for the same level of corporate earnings? We think that there is a risk that interest rates don’t fall as fast as expected, that corporate earnings disappoint and, in those environments, investors pay less for prospective earnings.

Thus we remain cautious on the investment return outlook.

Geopolitical uncertainty (e.g. ongoing US / China tensions, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the war between Russia and Ukraine and possible fall-out from the US election), coupled with monetary policy uncertainties, continues to add to market volatility (ups and downs).

As such, in this environment we remain wary of asset prices. We remain cautiously invested, diversified, and continue to hold higher than normal amounts in cash.

CKS Quarterly Returns to 30/06/2024

CKS Quarterly Returns to 30/06/2024

Investment returns as of 30 June 2024, before fees and tax

Growth Fund Balanced Fund Income Fund
3 months 1.0% 0.9% 0.8%
1 Year (p.a.) 11.1% 9.3% 5.2%
3 years (p.a.) 7.2% 5.0% 0.9%
5 years (p.a.) 8.7% 6.4% 1.7%
10 years (p.a.) 8.7% 6.9% 2.8%

We’re pleased to report that all our funds have shown positive performance this quarter.

While the long-term returns for our Income Fund have been influenced by the low-interest rate environment during the pandemic, we remain committed to navigating these challenges with prudence and care.

Market Insights: Navigating Uncertainty

The current market sentiment is largely optimistic, with many believing that inflation is under control, interest rate reductions are imminent, and corporate earnings will remain robust. This has led to several central banks lowering their official cash rates.

However, we adopt a more cautious stance. While headline inflation is indeed decreasing, central banks remain concerned about ‘sticky’ inflation, which includes factors like council rates, insurance premiums, and energy costs. This type of inflation is less responsive to traditional monetary policies, which could mean that interest rates might not decrease as swiftly as the market anticipates.

We also question whether corporate earnings will meet current expectations. If central banks cut rates aggressively due to economic risks, it could signal underlying vulnerabilities that might affect corporate profitability. Consequently, investors may become hesitant to pay higher prices for anticipated earnings, potentially leading to market corrections.

Our Strategy: Cautious and Diversified

In light of these uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and domestic growth fluctuations, we remain cautious about the investment return outlook. Our strategy emphasises cautious investment, diversification, and maintaining higher-than-normal cash reserves to help navigate potential market volatility.

At the Christian KiwiSaver Scheme, our priority is to grow your investments responsibly. We continue to monitor market conditions closely, ensuring that our investment decisions align with our commitment to your financial well-being.

Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, thank you for entrusting us with your KiwiSaver investment. Together, we navigate the path to a better financial future.

Investment Returns at 30 June 2022

Investment Returns at 31 March 2024

Investment returns (before tax and fees) for the quarter ending 31 March 2024 are:

Fund 3 months 1 Year (p.a.) 3 years (p.a.) 5 years (p.a.) 10 years (p.a.)
Growth Fund 5.0% 14.3% 8.4% 9.4% 8.9%
Balanced Fund 3.7% 11.5% 5.8% 6.8% 7.1%
Income Fund 0.9% 5.1% 0.9% 1.9% 2.9%

All our funds performed well in the quarter ended 31 March 2024.

The investment markets had a positive quarter thanks to strong economic data, especially from the US, and signs of slowing inflation. This boosted hopes for a “soft landing,” where the economy grows slowly without falling into a recession. Both the stock and bond markets saw gains.

However, not all developed markets are the same. During the COVID pandemic, economies shrank and central banks lowered interest rates in a similar way worldwide. Now, as time passes, economies and central banks are starting to go their separate ways. In Europe, for example, rate cuts are expected by mid-year due to weak industrial production, low retail sales, and low consumer confidence.

Investment markets are expecting a cycle of rate cuts to begin later this year, though the timing will vary by region. They also expect companies to continue showing positive earnings growth. Despite this, we remain cautious about the investment return outlook. We believe the market might be underestimating the economic risks from recent interest rate hikes.

Geopolitical uncertainty, such as tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and between the US and China, continues to cause market ups and downs. This has become a bigger factor in the global market compared to a decade ago.

In this environment, we remain cautious about asset prices. We stay diversified and keep higher-than-normal amounts in cash to manage risk effectively.

Investment Returns at 30 June 2022

Investment Returns at 31 December 2023

Investment returns (before tax and fees) for the quarter ending 31 December 2023 are:

Fund 3 months 1 Year (p.a.) 3 years (p.a.) 5 years (p.a.) 10 years (p.a.)
Growth Fund 5.4% 13.5% 7.7% 9.6% 8.5%
Balanced Fund 4.9% 11.3% 5.2% 7.1% 6.8%
Income Fund 3.7% 6.1% 0.4% 2.0% 2.9%


All funds have performed remarkably well in the quarter that ended on December 31, 2023. This is due to the increasingly positive perception with regards to the interest rate outlook, which investors believe may have peaked and are on their way down. This perception has led the share and bond markets to respond positively, with inflation appearing to have been beaten or falling rapidly. Investors also hope for an economic soft landing, where growth slows but avoids a recession and unemployment remains low.

However, it is important to note the make up of the reported inflation declines. While international inflation saw a decline, domestic inflation saw a lesser decline. This puts central banks in a challenging position, where they must choose between cutting interest rates early and risking
re-igniting inflation or delaying cuts and risking a growth slowdown (or recession). Moreover, central banks had recently announced that interest rates would remain at these current higher levels for longer.
 

We do not believe that there is potential to cut interest rates sooner than expected. We acknowledge the risks to company earnings due to increased costs. In particular, the high share prices of some stocks pose a risk of a fall in all share prices. 

Several factors influence market performance, and actual performances are rarely achieved in a straight line. Therefore, we recognise that there can be many bumps within a performance period, such as geo-political events like the ongoing Russia and Ukraine conflict, Israel and Gaza conflict, and the Red Sea crisis. Ongoing tensions between China and the USA can also impact the market, and further disturbances are expected, such as the upcoming USA elections and the development of the China and Taiwan relationship.

Given this environment, we believe it is essential to remain cautious of asset prices. We continue to hold higher-than-normal amounts in cash and remain cautiously invested and diversified. However, we also recognise that there are several opportunities to be explored, and we are actively seeking new investment avenues to ensure that our clients’ portfolios continue to grow and perform well in the long run.