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Investment Returns at 31 December 2022

Investment returns (before tax and fees)* for the quarter ending 31 December 2022 are:

Fund 3 months 1 Year (p.a.) 3 years (p.a.) 5 years (p.a.) 10 years (p.a.)
Growth Fund 2.0% -4.1% 5.8% 7.3% 8.1%
Balanced Fund 1.6% -4.5% 3.6% 5.2% 6.5%
Income Fund 0.8% -4.4% -0.3% 1.1% 2.4%

* rounded to one decimal place.

 

The final quarter of 2022 was better, despite investors questioning the strength of the economic outlook and how many more increases in interest rates might be needed to lower inflation.

However, as most people know, 2022 was not a good year overall for investors. Share markets fell, and interest rates rose strongly. Rising interest rates, which reflected inflation concerns, led to falling bond prices and therefore declines in the value of income funds.

Inflation concerns gathered steam over 2022 in the wake of the sad war in Ukraine and the lingering COVID influences. The increases in the cost of living and inflationary concerns were front and centre in most governments’ minds. The major central banks worldwide sought to fight concerns about rising living costs by raising the interest rates of securities in their control. Central bank actions, in turn, raised interest rates within their respective economies.

Where to from here? This year, barring any geo-political flare-ups, has begun with a continuation of the inflation concerns seen in 2022. Questions include, “have interest rates risen enough?” and “do current share prices correctly represent future economic activity?” We cover more detail in our Investment Outlook article for 2023, which you can read here.

We bought a small number of fixed-income securities recently, taking advantage of the better prices on offer. However, given the highly uncertain outlook, we remain cautiously invested and diversified and continue holding higher-than-normal cash amounts.

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Investment Outlook for 2023

The same main themes that applied in 2022 will again dominate in 2023. Those key themes revolve around the outlook for inflation, interest rates and growth. These are common every year but are particularly of concern at present.

Central banks have reversed their growth-enhancing policies. Interest rates rose significantly in 2022 and negatively impacted share prices. We believe interest rates will have a significant bearing on future returns. Will interest rates rise further this year? It is widely acknowledged that earlier interest rate rises have a delayed impact on the economy. Exactly how long the delay is and how deep the impact is varies depending on the area of the economy, e.g. mortgages, borrowing, business investment, consumer spending etc. There is still a lot of uncertainty about how labour shortages will affect the outcome. The fear is that labour shortages will result in wage growth, leading to higher inflation. These and other factors should determine how fast inflation numbers come down. Any geo-political developments could also surprise.

The World Bank has revised its 2023 economic forecasts. It was, in January 2023, expecting global economic growth of just 1.7% this year. If its predictions are accurate, that will put economic growth in 2023 at its third lowest level in the past three decades, behind 2009 (Global Financial Crisis) and 2020 (COVID-19).

There is little doubt, though, that whatever eventuates, the markets could fluctuate wildly at times. Rest assured, as we have mentioned previously, we are doing our best in these times of heightened uncertainty to look after our members’ interests. The portfolios remain diverse, and we focus on investments that we believe are more at the quality end of the spectrum.

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Your KiwiSaver checkup

Just like getting a Warrant of Fitness for your car, we think it is essential to regularly check your KiwiSaver Scheme to ensure it is still set up the way you expect. So, we’ve put together a few tips to help ensure sure your KiwiSaver is the best it can be.

We suggest it be done annually, perhaps at the beginning of each year or when you receive your annual member statement.

 

1. Check if your investment profile is still right for you.

This is about where your funds are invested. Is your choice of investment funds too conservative, too aggressive or just right?

The Sorted website has a useful tool to help you called Investor Kickstarter at www.sorted.org.nz/tools/investor-kickstarter. You answer a few questions, and it provides a guide to what type of investor you are and a typical investment mix for your investment profile.

 

2. Are you contributing enough?

Depending on your situation, consider whether you can afford to increase your contribution rate or make extra voluntary contributions.

If you have suspended making contributions, is it time to recommence contributing?

The Sorted website has another useful tool to help you with these questions, the KiwiSaver Savings Calculator www.sorted.org.nz/tools/kiwisaver-savings-calculator. You will need to complete a few questions, which will estimate how big your balance could be at age 65 and how much you could get per week in retirement. Try different contribution rates to see the impact on your future savings.

 

3. Is your Personal Investor Rate (PIR) correct?

Your PIR is the tax rate we use to calculate the tax on the income from the investment of your contributions. Check you are using the correct PIR. You don’t want to have too much tax taken from your KiwiSaver earnings or too little and face a tax bill by having the wrong PIR rate. Your PIR for the current tax year is based on your total taxable income in either of the last 2 tax years. If that changes, so might your PIR. Inland Revenue can also instruct us to change your PIR if they assess that it is incorrect. We have a handy guide to help you calculate your PIR on the scheme’s website www.christiankiwisaver.nz/documents under the Guides & Policies section.

 

There it is! Checking these three items every so often will help make sure that your KiwiSaver account is working for you.

Our staff are happy to help you with any questions you have on this.

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AML requirements update

We continue updating our customer records for Anti Money Laundering (AML) purposes

We want to say a big thank you to those customers who we have contacted and who have returned their completed consent form for electronic identity verification purposes, so that we can update your details for our compliance with anti-money laundering requirements. If we haven’t contacted you then you don’t need to do anything, your information is up-to-date!

 

We now have more than 70% of the consents that we need so that we can check whether or not you are a politically exposed person. This is a great result, and we are on track with updating our customer records. Paul has joined our member services team and the team will continue to follow up with those customers who we need consents from. Alternatively, if you haven’t already, you can provide your consent to electronic identity verification in any of the following ways:

  • through the Christian KiwiSaver Scheme website – this form of consent is online, so it is still a quick and simple way to complete the consent form. You can go direct to the website, or click the link to that form here: https://christiankiwisaver.nz/AMLConsent/
  • through your member portal – you can login to your account and find the link to the consent form on your dashboard. You can login here: https://christiankiwisaver.nz/login/ (if you need help logging in please email or call us)
  • by signing and dating a hard copy consent form – we can either email or post you a consent form (and you can post it or scan it back to us). Please email us or call us if you would prefer to provide your consent this way. 

 

One final request from us is that if you have moved address or changed your phone number or email address, could you please let us know? If so, our friendly member services staff can update your records for you.

Thank you for your assistance with this – we have greatly appreciated the understanding and positive response to date.

Christmas message 2022

Dear friends,

It is a pleasure to bring greetings to all who are members of Christian KiwiSaver Scheme, the Anglican Church’s clergy Pension Fund, members of the Retire Fund, and all our friends and supporters.

In this great festival of Christmas, Christian people all over the world will gather to celebrate God choosing to come in humility, as a vulnerable and dependent child, to dwell with us, so that we and all creation may be filled with God. God chooses not to remain safely aloof but to come into this world to experience human life in its fullness and in its harshness. Jesus will grow up to face trial and temptation, betrayal, fear, trauma, and death. He speaks to us as one who knows what we are facing and what we are going through, for he has experienced our fears and trials.

Christmas is a festival of hope that brings us close to heaven. As we come to adore the Christ child, we stand in the presence of heaven coming to earth, bringing the light and love of God into our midst. Crib scenes show the holy family living in humility; but animals also surround them to remind us that all creation joins in adoring the newborn Christ.

And yet that creation, which Christ comes to fill with God, is facing an unprecedented climate crisis brought about by human greed and exploitation. This crisis is robbing people worldwide of water, interrupting food supplies, and damaging communities. This Christmas, may we come to Christ in an attitude of repentance to renew our commitment to stand with those who are losing their homes and livelihoods and who fear for their future. May we commit ourselves afresh to caring for creation in every decision we make with our resources.

We give thanks, too, that God’s choice to take on human flesh and blood is as real now as it was in Bethlehem on that first Christmas Day. In the birth of Christ, we celebrate God’s love coming to us in human, personal form. We pray that Christ will be born in our hearts again; Christ living, dying, speaking and acting in our own bodies; Christ in the ones full of pressure and stress; Christ in the family struggling to find a home; Christ in the grieving person mourning the loss of a loved one; Christ in those living in war zones crying out for peace and justice. God chooses to dwell with us. He is Love come down from heaven. His agenda is always for our good, and he will be with us as we continue the next stage of our life’s journey.

I would like to thank the Board and the Investment Committee of Anglican Financial Care, our Chief Executive, Margaret Bearsley, and her team for their fantastic work supporting all of us this year. May our infant saviour give us all the joy of the Bethlehem shepherds, the awe of the sages and the humility of the holy family.

The Very Rev’d Lawrence Kimberley
Chair of Anglican Financial Care
Dean of Christchurch.

 

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Investment Returns at 30 September 2022

Investment returns (before tax and fees) for the quarter ending 30 September 2022 are:

Fund 3 months 1 Year (p.a.) 3 years (p.a.) 5 years (p.a.) 10 years (p.a.)
Growth Fund 0.7% -2.4% 6.0% 7.7% 8.2%
Balanced Fund -0.0%* -3.5% 3.7% 5.5% 6.6%
Income Fund -1.1% -5.4% -0.5% 1.1% 2.5%

* rounded to one decimal place.

 

Share markets were generally flat over the quarter. The fall in international share markets was offset by a fall in the New Zealand dollar. The New Zealand dollar fell as investors became concerned about the local growth outlook and that interest rates on offer may be better later overseas.

The downward movement in the New Zealand dollar could be considered a double edged sword. Exporters may be happier but imports may become dearer. Bond prices continued to fall (i.e. interest rates continued on their upward march this year) as major central banks around the world remained concerned with regards to the near-term inflationary outlook and conveyed their views as to the need for potentially higher short term interest rates. They hope to offset the rising cost of living that people are experiencing, by reducing demand for goods and services but without causing a recession or a large slowdown in the economy. The relentless rise in global interest rates continues to put downward pressure on share markets.

The recent return of large movements (up and down) in the share markets demonstrate their hyper-sensitivity to economic news and expectations. Political events added to the volatility (e.g. the proposed tax cuts and spending plans in the UK, subsequent U-turns in policy and the resignation of the UK Prime Minister).

The global economy is in unchartered territory with markets more focused on inflation and interest rates and less on company fundamentals. Outcomes in this respect are very hard to predict.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) signalled a downgrade, for the fourth consecutive quarter, to its updated global growth forecasts in early October. The head of the IMF said that a third of the world’s economy would suffer a recession next year and many others would feel like they were in recession, against backdrop of shrinking real incomes and rising prices.

A lot of pessimism has been priced into markets this year, and there has been significant conjecture about where interest rates, inflation and the broader economy are heading.

Optimists point to leading indicators of inflation falling rapidly, setting up 2023 for a year of big declines in measured CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation, while pessimists raise the idea that inflation will remain sticky, like it did in the 1970s, and it will take much higher interest rates to bring inflation under control.

Given the economic background which suggests a challenging time ahead for company earnings, uncertainty around company outlooks and consumer spending we remain cautiously invested, diversified and continue to hold higher than normal amounts in cash.